Denominator Neglect: A Poem
Unlikely things are likely to happen
when happening happens a lot.
Planets like Earth are certainly rare,
but trillions of planets are sitting out there.
In a large sea of trials, the rare’s almost sure—
in billions of bacteria, mutations occur.
But we shouldn’t live as if we’re the exception;
thinking that way can lead to deception.
Our minds are drawn to the numerator.
News coverage here is so much greater.
The lottery winners might be reported,
but not all the losers. It gives a distorted
view of the odds of our chances to win.
Two winners this year—but what’s the two in?
The numerator is exciting, indeed,
but what lies beneath, we must also heed.
When thinking about the best course of action,
don’t forget to check the bottom of the fraction.
Courses
Fallacy Detectors Part 1
Develop the skills to tackle logical fallacies through a series of 10 science-fiction videos with activities. Recommended for ages 8 and up.
A Statistical Odyssey
Learn about common statistical misconceptions with an interactive space adventure. Recommended for ages 12 and up.
Symbolic Logic for Teens Part 1
Learn how to make sense of complicated arguments with 14 video lessons and activities. Recommended for ages 13 and up.
Worksheets
Symbolic Logic Worksheets
Worksheets covering the basics of symbolic logic for children ages 12 and up.
Elementary School Worksheets and Lesson Plans
These lesson plans and worksheets teach students in grades 2-5 about superstitions, different perspectives, facts and opinions, the false dilemma fallacy, and probability.
Middle School Worksheets and Lesson Plans
These lesson plans and worksheets teach students in grades 5-8 about false memories, confirmation bias, Occam's razor, the strawman fallacy, and pareidolia.
High School Worksheets and Lesson Plans
These lesson plans and worksheets teach students in grades 8-12 about critical thinking, the appeal to nature fallacy, correlation versus causation, the placebo effect, and weasel words.
Statistical Shenanigans Worksheets and Lesson Plans
These lesson plans and worksheets teach students in grades 9 and up the statistical principles they need to analyze data rationally.