Survivorship Bias

Survivorship bias is a logical error where we draw conclusions based on the people or things that made it past a certain point (the “survivors”) and overlook those that didn't. It often happens because those who didn't make it past a certain selection process are less visible.

For example, entrepreneurs often want to mimic the strategies of successful businesses. However, it's possible that failed businesses employed these same strategies - perhaps to a higher degree! It's important to take into consideration the strategies of failed businesses, but it's easy to ignore them because they are unlikely to be famous.

Similarly, if all remaining structures in an ancient archaeological site are made from stone, can we conclude that this was their main building material? No. It is possible that they built structures out of straw, wood, and other less durable materials that did not stand the test of time.

Survivorship bias reminds us to consider all evidence, not just the visible successes. By acknowledging the unseen failures, we can avoid mistakes in judgment and make more informed decisions.

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