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Collision Puzzle

This result can be explained by the base rate. The base rate is how often something happens in the background. If more cars are travelling at moderate speeds than at high speeds, then it’s not surprising that the total number of collisions are higher at moderate speeds.

That doesn’t mean moderate speeds are more dangerous. To compare how risky different speeds are, we’d need to look at collision rates (for example, collisions per 1,000 cars driving at that speed), not just the total number of collisions.

This also explains why many road collisions happen close to home. It’s not that your local streets are unusually dangerous—it’s just where you do most of your driving.

Teach your teens about the base rate fallacy in Critikid's A Statistical Odyssey.

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